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What’s in Store for Desktop Hardware Vendors in 2010

As 2009 winds down it’s time to take a look back and a look ahead to forecast what 2010 will bring to desktop hardware OEM vendors.

These are difficult and challenging economic times but there are bright spots in the desktop hardware arena. Notebook sales remain strong; Netbooks are coming on strong and there’s a new class of so-called “super notebooks” that’s emerging, fueled most notably by Hewlett-Packard.

The desktop hardware OEMs are pinning their 2010 revenue hopes on an immediate market rebound based on the success of Microsoft’s newly released Windows 7, pent up demand and a plethora of new offerings arriving just in time for the holiday season.
Longer term though, hardware vendors, including Acer, Apple, Asustek, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, Sony, Toshiba and others are facing feverish competition as they vie with each other for corporate capital expenditure and consumer monies. In response, all are ramping up their sales efforts by offering dueling bargains and attempting to differentiate their products with a wide range of value-added devices and features at every price point from low-cost Netbooks to high-end gaming systems.
Global PC shipments rose slightly in 2009’s third calendar quarter as corporations and consumers cautiously began opening their wallets. This trend was helped by Microsoft’s long awaited Windows 7 operating system which debuted on October 22, to very good reviews. ITIC’s October 2009 Windows 7 Deployment Trends and Adoption Survey, which polled nearly 1,700 companies worldwide, indicated that 60% of corporate respondents will deploy Windows 7 within the next 12 months.
That’s good news for the desktop hardware vendors all of whom have a vested interest in highlighting their collective support and partnerships with Microsoft. The survey responses also showed that the availability of Windows 7 is just the impetus that corporations need to upgrade. Consumer sales – particularly for entry-level, aggressively priced Netbooks and notebooks – should also serve to bolster OEM hardware manufacturers in the immediate and near-term.
Not surprisingly, some desktop OEM vendors have fared better than others during the ongoing economic recession. Below is a roundup that details the strengths and challenges confronting the major desktop hardware manufacturers:
Acer: Acer has been one of the desktop hardware success stories over the past two years and now ranks as the number two desktop OEM vendor behind HP. This is largely due to key acquisitions – notably Gateway and Packard Bell – which have heightened and expanded the company’s global brand. Acer also scored big wins with the success of its notebooks and the robust demand for the company’s Aspire One 10-inch Netbooks which debuted in the summer of 2008. Street pricing for Acer’s entry level Netbooks begins at a very economical $149; though pricing of $299 is the median average. The Aspire One has done well against competing offerings from Dell Inspiron Mini 9 and the Asus Eee PC line of desktops. The Aspire One also has broad consumer appeal owing to its support for Windows, Linux and even a modified version of the Mac OS X via the OSx86 project. Acer aspires to surpass HP as the world’s top PC/notebook/Netbook manufacturer, but it has its work cut out for it. While the quality of the Acer product is high, HP and Dell both have the edge when it comes to fast, efficient service and support.
Apple: Can Apple do anything wrong? For the last few years – in the consumer space, at least – the answer is “No.” The enormous success of the iPod and the iPhone has, in turn, buoyed sales of Apple Mac desktops – particularly its notebooks. Always a hit with consumers, this popularity is now carrying over with modest success in the enterprise arena. Those same consumers have also been taking their Macs into the workplace and using them in increasing numbers as their corporate desktop instead of Wintel-based PCs. Apple notebooks won’t make a perceptible dent in PCs in the workplace for the foreseeable future, but ITIC survey data shows that this is a sustained trend. Apple CEO Steve Jobs has consistently maintained that Apple will eschew the lucrative low-end Netbook market. But the company is widely rumored to be developing a Tablet PC of unknown dimensions – but larger than an iPhone to counter the Netbook.
It is against Apple’s company policy to reveal any product details (or even confirm the existence of a product) in advance of shipment but we believe it’s highly unlikely that Apple will let 2010 pass without making a major new product introduction. Meanwhile, Apple’s financials and its marketing are stellar. The Cupertino, California firm has been one of the shining stars in high technology and has consistently out-performed in this sector. Consider the numbers: Apple’s stock price is up an astounding 124.8% in the last 12 months and is currently hovering at just over $201 a share, and quarterly revenues grew 25% year over year (YoY). The company has a market cap of $181.14 billion; profit margins of 15.61%; operating margins of 20.96% and return on equity of 23.35%. Apple also has significant cash on hand: $23.46 billion and no debt. Apple also has the distinction of being just about the only high technology firm that did not have any layoffs over the past 18 months.
Asustek: Based in Taiwan, Asustek is a fast growing company with big ambitions. It was one of the first companies to manufacture and capitalize on the Netbook craze and it has set a self-proclaimed goal to be one of the world’s top three notebook vendors by 2011. The company hopes to accomplish this via acquisition and it has its sights set on acquiring Toshiba’s notebook business. Asustek and Toshiba are reportedly in negotiations although nothing has been finalized. Meanwhile, Asustek is a serious up and coming competitor in the consumer desktop hardware sector. The company posted a net profit of $6.49 billion in its just ended fiscal quarter, which is double what was predicted.
Dell: It’s no secret that Dell has struggled and has lost business and market share to both Acer and HP during the past 24 months. However, there are bright spots and encouraging signs for the company. In particular is Dell’s strong partnership with Microsoft; Windows 7 sales should help lift Dell desktop sales – particularly in the enterprise sector where Dell enjoys a strong presence. Additionally, ITIC survey data indicates that Dell gets an “excellent” or “very good” rating for service and support from an overwhelming 84% of businesses.
Though the industry at large incorrectly perceives Dell a consumer vendor, in reality, the company has an extremely strong enterprise presence. Consequently, Dell’s sales suffered because of the protracted slowing of enterprise desktop upgrade cycles. Dell reported disappointing financials numbers two weeks ago, including a 54% drop in revenue in the latest quarter. Sales are down 14.9% YoY, with annual sales of $51.43 billion on earnings of $1.45 billion. Operating margins are also on the thin side at 4.67%. These results stood in stark contrast to overall strong PC/notebook/Netbook sales during the same period, causing some industry watchers to opine that Dell may be missing the boat as the industry slowly recovers from the downturn.
Dell executives – led by CEO Michael Dell — have repeatedly said in recent weeks that they are poised for a turnaround. The company sought to reassure analysts and industry watchers by saying it will not initiate steep price cuts on its PCs. However, Dell moved aggressively to slash tags on its PC monitors for the Black Friday sales which traditionally usher in the holiday shopping season. For example, Dell’s S2009W 20-inch desktop monitor sold for $99 at Best Buy last week; a substantial 37% decrease from the normal list price of $159. Dell executives have also been vocal in recent weeks in stating that their fortunes and sales will wax based on demand for Microsoft’s newly released Windows 7. And in fact, Dell does have cause for optimism in this regard. Additionally, Dell’s Alienware M15x, 15 inch notebook and the M17x 17-inch laptop aimed at hard core gaming enthusiasts, which debuted earlier this year to rave reviews, are among best in breed. The M15x pricing starts at $1,499 while the M17x retail prices start at $1,799 and ranges to $4,899 for a high end fully loaded model.
Another Dell strength is found in its marketing and it will need to bring all of its skills to bear in this area to jumpstart sales.
Hewlett-Packard: The world’s Number One desktop hardware maker has navigated through the troubled economic waters better than most competitors. This is due to HP CEO Mark Hurd’s ongoing cost cutting initiatives and fortifying its’ services offerings with the purchase of EDS. HP also gets high marks for its diversified product portfolio. The company’s printer and peripheral business remains strong and HP now has a new play in networking owing to its recent acquisition of 3Com. This diversification will continue to help the company weather the worst of the economic downturn.

Although HP is often perceived as mainly an enterprise vendor, in reality, the firm has a huge presence in the consumer space. This has solidified HP’s position as the top desktop hardware OEM. The consumer sector has shown more strength in the last 18 months than the enterprise arena, where budget constraints have forced IT departments to delay desktop hardware refresh cycles. HP became the world’s number one desktop hardware OEM back in 2007, wresting the title away from Dell on the strength of its feature rich notebooks. HP is also betting heavily on an emerging class of hybrid laptops dubbed “super Netbooks.” The most notable HP offering in this category is the DM3 13-inch lightweight device that is equipped with 4GB memory and eight hours of battery life. It has a list price of $599 from HP but as of Black Friday, Amazon began selling it for $499.

HP is performing well overall. The company has not been immune to the downturn; quarterly revenue growth declined by 8.40% YoY, however quarterly earnings growth is a positive 14.20%. HP’s latest financials beat the street and its gross margin is 23.59%, while operating margin is 9.62% on annual earnings of $7.66 billion and annual sales of $114.55 billion. HP’s return on equity is a very healthy 19.28%. The combination of cost cutting, a diverse product portfolio, strategic acquisitions and very good technical service and support all augur well for HP’s continued success in the desktop arena throughout 2010 and beyond.
Lenovo: The outlook remains challenging for Lenovo Group Ltd, which is the world’s fourth largest PC/notebook manufacturer. Based in Hong Kong, Lenovo purchased IBM’s PC business in 2005. Earlier this month, the company staunched the flow of red ink from three consecutive losing quarters and posted a net profit for its 2010 second fiscal quarter of $53.08 million (US). However, Lenovo’s revenues fell 5.2% to $4.10 billion (US) from $4.33 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Cost cutting measures and strong growth in China helped Lenovo to rebound. PC and notebook sales to China accounted for nearly half – 49% – of Lenovo’s second quarter sales. However company executives cautioned that the economic environment remains challenging. “The worldwide personal computer market has not recovered yet and Lenovo is still facing difficult problems,” said Chairman Liu Chuanzhi in a November 5 teleconference call with analysts. He added that Lenovo is working to resolve its issues but said it will take time, stating that the company hopes (analysts) “won’t set excessively high expectations for us, and give us room to grow.”
All in all, consumers and corporations can expect to reap great bargains as competition intensifies among major and minor desktop hardware vendors. At the same time vendors must deliver superlative price/performance economies of scale and top notch service and support in order to successfully compete over the next 12 to 15 months.

What’s in Store for Desktop Hardware Vendors in 2010 Read More »

Analysis: Citrix XenDesktop 4 Product and Positioning

Citrix today released XenDesktop™ 4, which it says is designed to “make virtual desktops a mainstream reality for hundreds of millions of corporate employees .” XenDesktop 4 incorporates a new FlexCast™ delivery technology that takes an agnostic approach, by supporting every major desktop virtualization model in a single, integrated solution. Citrix says this will result in improved ROI, simplified management and extends the benefits of virtualization to every employee in the enterprise. XenDesktop 4 further simplifies desktop computing by integrating all the capabilities of Citrix XenApp. This will allow businesses to deliver on-demand applications to physical or virtual desktops as a seamless part of their overall desktop strategy. To ensure every user gets a high-definition experience at all times, XenDesktop 4 also includes significant enhancements to its industry-leading HDX™ technology.

Another significant component of today’s announcement is that it solidifies and expands the Citrix and Microsoft partnership. The two companies compete in some areas, but in the broader sense they are united by a common goal: to overtake and trounce virtualization server market leader VMware. The Citrix/Microsoft partnership is a true alliance and one that will simplify and enhance the management of virtual desktops through Microsoft System Center. It also adds multiple enhancements that further extend the value of Microsoft Windows and Windows Server platforms. In total, XenDesktop 4 adds more than 70 new features, significantly enhancing its performance, security and readiness for large, enterprise-wide deployments.

Pricing and Availability
Citrix says XenDesktop 4 will be generally available beginning on November 16, 2009. It  will be licensed on a per user basis. This model allows each end user to use an unlimited number of connected or offline devices at no additional cost. XenDesktop 4 will be available in three editions with the following suggested list prices: 

  • Standard – $75 per user
  • Enterprise – $225 per user
  • Platinum –  $350 per user

ITIC ANALYSIS
Pros

Overall, Citrix’ today’s XenDesktop 4 product announcement as well as the company’s strategic focus on cloud computing, desktop virtualization, security, management and interoperability indicate that the company has a sound focus and is well positioned to compete with market leader VMware.

In addition, Citrix’ strong partnership with Microsoft gives the company visibility, access to Microsoft’s broad Windows customer base and deep channel. At the same time, Citrix’ XenServer also directly competes with Microsoft’s Hyper-V, a fact that company executives freely acknowledge. This might be more worrisome for Citrix were it not for the fact that the companies need each other to combat VMware, which has built up a substantial lead in the server virtualization space. In the spirit of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” the Citrix/Microsoft partnership will most likely remain that of a close healthy alliance with elements of friendly but spirited “co-opetition.”

Citrix’ other notable strengths are its’ leadership role in promoting Xen.org as an open source community virtualization standard and the breadth and depth of its add-on management and security products. The Xen.org initiative gives Citrix high visibility and credibility with the development community and the industry at large, which will stand it in good stead as it attempts to grow. The add-ons products should enable Citrix customers and partners to build end-to-end solutions that can be based entirely or partially on Citrix technologies.

Cons

Citrix’ as ambitions to be a top tier virtualization vendor means that it must be a top tier vendor in every sense of the word. And that means growing revenue. Light hearted jokes about the state of the economy aside, Templeton and the entire executive and product management team at Citrix understands this and freely acknowledged the fact at the Analyst Summit. Now the company must demonstrate that it can buck the trend by increasing both its sales and installed base. And Citrix must spike sales within the next six-to-nine months as enterprises begin to plan and budget for the next round of upgrades.

ITIC survey data indicates that Citrix is the market leader in the desktop virtualization space and is a close second in the applications virtualization market. Both of these markets are relatively small at present; only five to 10% of businesses worldwide have deployed desktop and application virtualization. So it’s too soon to declare any vendor a winner or clear market leader. Meanwhile, the desktop and application virtualization arenas have three strong contenders in Citrix, Microsoft and VMware. Market adoption in these segments will begin to ramp up strongly in 2010, when according to ITIC’s latest virtualization deployment survey close to 30% of corporations will begin virtualizing their desktops and applications. Clearly, these markets are stepping stones Citrix could use to establish itself in the potentially lucrative yet nascent cloud computing infrastructure market.

In order for Citrix to be a major cloud player, it must first solidify its current customer base and expand outside of its core client bailiwick. Citrix must also offer a cogent, compelling marketing strategy to complement and highlight its new product offerings. This will be challenging in the short term since Citrix does not yet possess the deep pockets of its larger rivals, VMware, Microsoft and Oracle. Citrix’ ace is its chief technology officer, Simon Crosby, who is a highly visible and regarded virtualization expert. Crosby is an indefatigable evangelist who never misses an opportunity to point out competitors’ flaws while promoting the Citrix brand.

Analysis: Citrix XenDesktop 4 Product and Positioning Read More »

Citrix Launches New Desktop Virtualization Product Blitz

Citrix Systems laid out a broad, bold tactical product roadmap and showcased a solid, long term strategic vision at its Analyst Summit held in Denver on September 16-17.
Desktop virtualization, cloud computing, on-demand computing, self-service IT and expanding the company’s strategic vendor alliances and channel partnerships represent the key thrusts over the next six-to-12 months, according to Citrix president and chief executive, Mark Templeton.
All of the aforementioned initiatives will also be the focus of several, separate Citrix’ fall and winter product introductions. The first announcement is slated for later today.
Templeton delivered the keynote to the approximately 70 assembled analysts, stating that as Citrix celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, the company’s goal is “to stand out from the [virtualization] crowd and avoid the status quo.” Templeton, a 14-year Citrix veteran served up some encouraging company statistics noting that while revenue has been essentially flat over the past year – which he considers a positive in the ongoing economic downturn – Citrix’ business is growing in almost every other area (see chart below). “Flat [revenue] is the new growth,” Templeton joked, referring to the company’s 2009 first half revenue of $762 million.

Citrix Expands Product Portfolio

Templeton said that Citrix is moving to aggressively solidify its place as one of the top tier virtualization vendors – along with VMware and Microsoft – by growing the business both organically as well as by acquisitions. ITIC survey data indicates that the top three virtualization vendors: Citrix, Microsoft and VMware account for 90% market share – particularly in the server virtualization arena, where VMware is the clear market leader with over 50% share. In recent months, the more mature server virtualization market has seen a spate of mergers and acquisitions, most notably Oracle’s purchase of Sun Microsystems, Inc. and niche market player Virtual Iron.

Citrix’ own purchase of XenSource in October 2007 and its subsequent partnership with Microsoft to support the Redmond, Washington software firm’s Hyper-V product have given the company a strong foothold in the server arena. Additionally, the Citrix Xen virtualization technology is embedded in a variety of operating system platforms including the open source Debian Etch; Novell’s SUSE Linux Enterprise 10 and 11; Red Hat’s Enterprise 5 and Oracle’s Sun Solaris. Dell also includes the Citrix XenServer OEM Edition as an embedded hypervisor as an option in its Power Edge Servers.

Most recently Citrix has notably bolstered its desktop and application virtualization product portfolio with the addition and enhancement of a number of key offerings including the NetScaler (Application Optimization, Application Delivery Networking, Load Balancing, Web Application Acceleration and Application Firewall).
Citrix is also exerting and extending its influence via the open source Xen.org community project, which Templeton said, now boasts more than 3,700 individual members; 250 contributing companies. Unique code contributions, he added increased 110% from 2008 to 2009. Central to the Xen.org strategy is the Xen Cloud project, which is an open source, open platform for cloud providers. It features broad interoperability among various competing hypervisors; broad industry support and serves as a platform for an overarching open source ecosystem, Templeton said.
Cloud computing is central to Citrix’ long term strategy and the company is building a wide array of desktop management and security add-ons to facilitate corporations’ migration to both private and public cloud infrastructures.
“Consumption based costs is becoming an imperative for users,” Templeton said. “If you’re not a leader in this area, it will kill you,” he added.
Citrix Ramps Up

Templeton noted that Citrix had spent $1.8 billion in acquisitions over the past 18-to-24 months, to bolster the company’s three business divisions: the Online Division; the Desktop Division and the Datacenter and Cloud Division.

In particular, Citrix intends to cement its position in the fast emerging desktop and application virtualization markets by highlighting the increasing trend towards self-service IT. According to Templeton, Citrix’ Software as a Service (SaaS) group is among the “fastest growing part of the company with over 100M online virtualization sessions” to its credit.

Templeton and Wes Wasson, the company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) said Citrix’ Xen Desktop is the centerpiece of the company’s short term tactical and long term strategic plans and goals. “Desktop virtualization, Templeton and Wasson said, “can help take big chunks [reduce] the time spent on daily systems management chores” like patching and rolling out updates which consume an enormous amount of IT managers’ time.

“Our agenda is to offer the broadest set of virtualization technologies in the industry – separating desktops and applications from the physical server, to address the growing numbers of mobile, remote and telecommuting workers,” Templeton said. This is crucial he noted, because industry wide, IT spending remains flat in the low single digits. In contrast, “the velocity and amplitude of change” facing customers continues to accelerate.

“For many businesses the current infrastructure design is not suitable for the emerging dynamic business environment. Citrix is responding to market dynamics and market realities where the only constant is change,” Wasson said.

The Citrix executives said they recognize that in the current depressed economic climate, the balance of power has moved from vendors to customers. “No vendor will be successful with a lock-in strategy,” Wasson said. Hence, Citrix will continue to pursue a platform agnostic approach to ensure that its products will work in all operating system environments; the company also provides interoperability and integration with offerings from rival vendors like VMware. The company is also shoring up its partnerships with software vendors like Microsoft and Novell as well as hardware OEMs like Dell and Hewlett-Packard.

This strategy has helped Citrix garner new customer wins among large enterprises accounts. During the summit Citrix showcased corporate accounts such as Emory Healthcare in Atlanta, Ga., which uses Citrix Delivery Center to cut costs by 60% for an anticipated operational savings of $1.5 million in 2009, according to Michael Thomason, Lead IT manager. Tesco, a British based international grocery chain and retailer said it replaced 1,500 traditional servers and consolidated using virtual blade servers and Citrix XenServer technology, according to Chris Brockelsby, the company’s lead IT Director.

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High Tech Financial Roundup: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The high technology earnings reports from the major vendors over the last several weeks have been decidedly mixed. Some companies notably beat expectations while other bellwether firms’ financials exhibited significant weaknesses.

Apple, IBM and Intel earnings were all in positive territory, beating Wall Street forecasts. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Advanced Micro Devices, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems (recently acquired by Oracle) and Yahoo all posted disappointing – albeit not totally unexpected – declining numbers.

Overall, the latest financial reports provide an interesting perspective on trends in the high technology sector for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010. The consumer sector led by Apple appears robust, while PC sales and the business software sector as evidenced by the contraction and sluggishness in Microsoft’s Windows and Office are weak. That softness will likely persist for the remainder of calendar 2009.

Apple was the biggest winner by far and the brightest star in the high technology firmament.

Apple financials beat all analysts’ expectations. For the 2009 third fiscal quarter ended June 30, Apple posted quarterly revenue of $8.34 billion and net profit of $1.23 billion; that’s a 12% year-over-year earnings increase and the strongest of any June quarter in Apple’s history, the company said. Apple’s strength was evident across the majority of its product segments. iPod sales remained brisk with 10.2 million sold in the just ended quarter, although that is an approximately eight percent decline from 11 million sold during the June 2008 third quarter. Apple and Wall Street analysts attributed the decrease to cannibalization by iPhone sales. However, iPod touch unit sales grew 130% from last year.

Apple sold 2.6 million Macs – a 4% unit increase from the year-ago quarter. Apple’s gross margin was 36.3%, up from 24.8% in the year-ago quarter. Apple also exhibited extremely good diversification, with international sales contributing to 44% of third quarter revenue.

IBM also posted earnings that surpassed Wall Street forecasts and that in turn, lifted Big Blue’s 2009 full-year profit forecast. IBM net earnings increased 12% to $3.1 billion, or $2.32 per share; that easily bested financial analysts’ per-share prediction of $2.02. IBM also got a boost from its ongoing cost cutting measures which helped to lift profits. However, IBM sales declined by 13% to $23.25 billion. In a published statement IBM said it expects to save $3.5 billion in cost cutting measures for 2009; that’s $500 million more this year than it had anticipated.

Intel’s third quarter financials offered a mixed picture. The world’s number one chipmaker had sales of $8.4 billion for the quarter even as it recorded a second-quarter net loss of $398 million, or 7 cents a share, compared to the $1.6 billion and 28 cents a share that Intel earned during the same period in 2008. This was Intel’s first quarterly loss since 1986. The red ink was attributable to charges associated with the $1.45 billion fine levied by the European Commission. In May the EC ruled that Intel abused its market position to cut its chief rival, AMD out of the European market. Intel said it will appeal, but meanwhile, the fines stand.

Intel’s better than expected sales figures buoyed analysts and industry observers because it occurred in spite of sluggish PC sales. One very encouraging note for Intel’s immediate and intermediate term is that its entry level Atom chip, which is used in the burgeoning Netbook minis, is not siphoning off Celeron processor revenues. The Celeron processors are used in the more inexpensive notebooks and there was some fear that the Atom chips would cannibalize a significant amount of Celeron revenue. Meanwhile, revenue from Atom processors and chipsets rose 65 percent from the 2009 first quarter to $362 million.

At the same time, the high tech sector suffered a blow when Microsoft announced the first annual sales loss in the company’s 34-year history. The news was not unexpected, still it cast a pall since Microsoft, the world’s number one software maker is an industry barometer.

For its fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30, Microsoft profits plunged 29 percent to $3.05 billion from the same quarter in 2008. Sales similarly declined by 17 percent during the fourth quarter to $13.10 billion. Microsoft said its poor fourth quarter numbers were attributable to the continuing weakness in the PC and server markets as well as the smaller software licensing fees it collects from the Netbooks.

Most worrisome was the fact that Microsoft experienced quarterly revenue declines in all five of its major business segments. Windows client revenue waned by 29 percent during the fourth quarter; that was $1 billion less than the client software group 2008 fourth quarter sales. And it provided yet another indicator that corporations stayed put on Windows XP, instead of migrating to Vista. quarter, representing a shortfall of more than $1 billion from the year-ago quarter. For the year, Client revenue was down 13 percent. In an earnings call, Microsoft chief financial officer Christopher Liddell attributed this to the overall malaise in the PC hardware market and the “substantial weakness” in the business PC market resulting from budget cuts and delayed hardware refresh cycles. And although Microsoft had indicated it would miss its numbers, the results were weaker than Wall Street estimates of $14.37 billion in sales. For fiscal year 2009 Microsoft had revenue of $58.44 billion, a three percent decline from 2008. One bright spot: Windows unit sales on Netbook minis increased for the first time since the September 2008 quarter.

Yahoo’s financial report was mixed. On a positive note, the struggling online search and advertising firm, beat Wall Street forecasts with its net earnings of $141 million and 10 cents per share. However, most of that was due to substantial cost cutting efforts and handing out over one thousand pink slips. On the downside, Yahoo revenue was $1.57 billion a decrease of 13 percent. And with Yahoo forecasting even greater losses for the current quarter, the industry continue to clamor for Yahoo to ink that long rumored search engine deal with Microsoft. Yahoo chief executive Carol Bartz remained mum on any impending deal.

AMD’s financial woes continued. The company was in the red for the 11th straight quarter; although the company said the rate of loss was slowing. For the second fiscal quarter, AMD posted a net loss of $330 million or 49 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter was $1.18 billion.

In the wake of the bruising financials, AMD’s stock is currently trading at $3.77; its profit margin is off by over 43 percent; operating margin is down nearly 17 percent and its return on equity to shareholders is down by a whopping 415 percent.

High Tech Financial Roundup: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Read More »

Ready, aim, fire! Google Chrome Gets Ready to Battle Windows for Desktop Dominance

Everyone loves a good battle. And no market segment has experienced more bellicosity than the operating system arena.

For the last two decades, Microsoft Windows was the undisputed, dominant player with 90% of the desktop OS market share. Today, Microsoft Windows is still the most widely deployed operating system. But its dominance is no longer undisputed.

Microsoft faces an array of formidable challengers including Apple, Google and Ubuntu. Google’s initiatives over the last two years have obviously attracted a good deal of attention – just as they are meant to do.

The recent media coverage and talk of the looming battle between Google’s Chrome OS and Microsoft Windows 7 and Office 2010 conveniently ignores two important facts: 1) the Chrome operating system doesn’t ship until sometime in 2010, and 2) when it does debut it will initially run only on low-cost Netbooks, a miniscule if rapidly growing part of the market.

Other considerations are not as easily answered: What tangible, material impact will this rivalry have on customer deployments? Will Google’s entrance into the Netbook OS market really force Microsoft to slash prices and cut into its Windows profits, the heart and soul of its business? And who besides the press, Google and Microsoft really cares?

It is abundantly clear that Google and Microsoft — each of whom dominates in their core markets – are desperately attempting to encroach on one another’s turf. Google is a convincing leader in the search engine and online advertising market. And Microsoft continues to be the market leader in operating systems and office productivity applications. The sparring has been exacerbated and honed by the ongoing economic downturn. Hence, the series of recent one-upmanship maneuvers. Microsoft announces it’s moving up the release date for Windows 7 and Google responds with headlines of its own about directly competing with Windows. Google said it will partner with top OEM manufacturers like Acer, HP and Lenovo to port Chrome OS onto their Netbook platforms by the second half of 2010. Microsoft counter-punched by releasing details about some of upcoming Office 2010 applications becoming untethered.

Microsoft is aiming straight for Google with its new Office Web Applications. Microsoft Word, PowerPoint, Excel and OneNote are heading to the cloud in scaled down versions of the immensely popular software that will be browser based and completely free. And although details have been sketchy at best, sources within Microsoft indicate company intends to meld the Office platform across traditional PCs and servers, the Internet and smart phones.Microsoft did release new details about Office at its Worldwide Partners Conference (WPC) in New Orleans last week.Among the disclosures: Office 2010 – due out in the first half of next year – will include a free Web edition and it will finally offer interoperability with the Mozilla Firefox and Apple Safari browsers. The Office 2010 Web edition will also incorporate “lite” versions of Word, PowerPoint, Excel and OneNote. Microsoft will likely release more details at its Worldwide Partners Conference (WPC) in New Orleans, this week.

Microsoft and Google continue to circle each other like the battle scarred veterans they are –looking for the weak spot and the right moment to attack, hoping to score a direct hit and encroach on the other’s turf in a meaningful way – e.g. stealing sales and market share.

In truth, neither company has drawn first blood, although not for lack of trying.

 

Google vs. Microsoft: A Historical Perspective

The rivalry between Google and Microsoft dates back several years. Both covet what the other has and both have met with limited success in their attempts to extend their empires beyond their core competencies and revenue streams. While Microsoft has for the last few years been unceasing in its efforts to penetrate the online search engine and advertising market, it still derives 50% of its revenue from the Windows and Office platforms.
Microsoft’s Bing search engine debuted earlier this year to generally positive results. In fact, Bing is Microsoft’s best effort to date but it remains to be seen how much impact it will have on Google.

For its part, Google launched its first serious offensive strike at Microsoft’s dominance in the operating system and applications arena in early 2006 with Google Apps, a set of web-based and desktop applications. Google Apps consists of Gmail, Google Maps, Google Docs & Spreadsheets and Google Calendar. The company continues to bolster the functionality of the platform, and in 2007-2008 added Standard and Premier offerings that incorporate remote and mobile access capabilities, email migration tools and stronger online technical support. The Standard version of Google Apps is free and the Premier version lists for $50 per seat.

Microsoft & Google by the Numbers

From a financial standpoint, both Google and Microsoft remain healthy, although like every other ITfirm, both have felt the effects of the continuing economic crunch. So far this year, Microsoft has laid off 5,000 employees; this is the first substantial layoff in the company’s history. More worrisome for the Redmond, Washington giant is that its Quarterly Revenue and Quarterly Earnings Growth fell into negative categories (See chart below) from the 2008 to the 2009 third quarter ended March 31. The company hopes that Windows 7 (due out on October 22) and Office 2010 will spur sales and revenue and reverse the decline. At the same time, Microsoft knows it must diversify and so it looks to the Web and the emerging cloud computing market, where companies like Amazon and Google dominate.

Google, for its part has yet to loosen Microsoft’s hold in the rich operating systems and office productivity suite. Google Chrome is free and as such does not generate any revenue for the company but that may change because Netbook sales are poised to explode over the next 12 months and could provide Google with the needed momentum to establish itself as an applications provider.In the meantime, Google hopes that the good news from its latest financial earnings (see chart below) and its aggressive high profile marketing strategy will generate a buzz and create pent-up demand for Chrome in the run-up to its 2010 debut.

 

Performance Criteria – Q3 2009

  Google Microsoft
Market Cap: $135 billion $206.7 billion
Profit margin: 20.6% 25.9%
Operating margin: 32.6% 37.1%
Total Cash: $19.3 billion $24 billion
Debt: $0 $2 billion
Return on Assets: 14.2% 20.3%
Return on Equity: 16.% 42.5%
Annual Revenue: $22.7 billion $60.4 billion
Annual Net Income: $4.6 billion $22.5 billion
Quarterly Revenue Growth: 2.9% -5.6%
Quarterly Earnings Growth: 19% -32.2%

***Editor’s Note: Google’s fiscal year coincides with the calendar year, while Microsoft’s fiscal year begins on July 1. The above figures represent Google’s most recent second quarter ended June 30.

 

Future Prospects

What does this posturing and verbal sparring mean for corporate and consumer customers? In the near term, Google and Microsoft’s dueling headlines and pronouncements will have very little impact on customers in terms of platform commitment and purchasing decisions. The ongoing rivalry does mean that neither company can relax or relent for a Pico-second. Each must continue to deliver first-rate, full featured, bug-free products that deliver ease-of-use and integration and interoperability with existing applications and platforms. And both companies must stick to their announced timetables and deliver on their promises, lest one or the other exploit the opportunity.

Microsoft can’t afford a repeat of the lack of backwards application compatibility that plagued its much-maligned Vista desktop. At the same time, Google’s hopes for penetrating the applications and OS market rest on the functionality of its offerings beyond the simple basics that are adequate for Netbook sales.

Ultimately, corporate and consumer customers will demand and receive high performance products at a reasonable price – or they’ll simply sit on their wallets.

The biggest winners in this ongoing war may be the end users. And isn’t that a refreshing change?

Ready, aim, fire! Google Chrome Gets Ready to Battle Windows for Desktop Dominance Read More »

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