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The Cloud Gets Crowded and more Competitive

The cloud is getting crowded.

In 2022 the cloud computing market – particularly the hybrid cloud – is hotter and more competitive than ever.

Corporate enterprises are flocking to the cloud as a way to offload onerous IT administrative tasks and more easily and efficiently manage increasingly complex infrastructure, storage and security. Migrating operations from the data center to the cloud can also greatly reduce their operational and capital expenditure costs.

Cloud vendors led by market leaders like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, IBM Cloud, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, SAP, Salesforce, Rackspace Cloud, and VMware, as well as China’s Alibaba and Huawei Cloud, are all racing to meet demand. The current accelerated shift to the cloud was fueled by the COVID-19 global pandemic which created supply chain disruptions and upended many aspects of traditional work life. Since 2020, government agencies, commercial businesses and schools shifted to remote working and learning. Although COVID is generally waning (albeit with continuing flare-ups), a hybrid work environment is the new normal. This in turn, makes a compelling business case for furthering cloud migrations.

In 2022, more than $1.3 trillion in enterprise IT spending is at stake from the shift to cloud, and that revenue will increase to nearly $1.8 trillion by 2025 according to the February 2022 report “Market Impact: Cloud Shift – 2022 Through 2025” by Gartner, Inc. in Stamford, Conn.  Furthermore, Gartner’s latest research forecasts that enterprise IT spending on public cloud computing, within addressable market segments, will outpace traditional IT spending in 2025.

Hottest cloud trends in 2022

Hybrid Clouds

Hybrid cloud is exactly what its name implies: it’s a combination of public, private and dedicated on-premises datacenter infrastructure and applications. Companies can adopt a hybrid approach for specific use cases and applications – outsourcing some portions of their operations to a hosted cloud environment, while keeping others onsite. This approach lets companies continue to leverage and maintain their legacy data infrastructure as they migrate to the cloud.

Cloud security and compliance: There is no such thing as too much security. ITIC’s 2022 Global Server Hardware Security survey indicates that businesses experienced an 84% surge in security incidents like ransomware, email phishing scams and targeted data breaches over the last two years that were especially prevalent and commonplace. The hackers are extremely sophisticated; they choose their targets with great precision with the intent to inflict maximum damage and net the biggest payback. This trend shows no signs of abating. In 2021, the average cost of a successful data breach increased to $4.24 million (USD); this is a 10% increase from $3.86 million in 2020 according to the 2021 Cost of a Data Breach Study, jointly conducted by IBM and the Ponemon Institute. The $4.24 million average cost of a single data breach is the highest number in the 17 years since IBM and Ponemon began conducting the survey. It represents an increase of 10% in the last 12 months and 20% over the last two years. Not surprisingly, in 2021, 61% of malware directed at enterprises targeted remote employees via cloud applications. Any security breach will have a domino effect on regulatory compliance. In response, cloud vendors are doubling down on security capabilities and compliance certifications. There is now a groundswell of demand for Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) cloud security architecture designed to safeguard, monitor and access connectivity among myriad cloud applications services, as well as datacenter IT infrastructure and end user devices. SASE gives users a single sign-on capability across multiple cloud applications while ensuring compliance.

Cloud-based disaster recovery (DR): The ongoing concerns around security and compliance issues has also shone the spotlight on the importance of cloud-based disaster recovery. DR uses cloud computing to back up data and continue to run the necessary business processes in case of disaster. Organizations can utilize cloud-based DR for load balancing and to replicate cloud services across multiple cloud environments and providers. The result: enterprise transactions will continue uninterrupted if they lose access to their physical infrastructure in the event of an outage.

Cloud-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML): Another hot cloud trend is the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Both AI and ML allow organizations to cut through the data deluge and process and analyze the data to make informed business decisions and quickly respond to current and future market trends.

Top cloud vendors diversify, differentiate their offerings

There are dozens of cloud providers with more entering this lucrative market arena all the time. However, the top four vendors: Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and IBM Cloud currently account for over 70% of the installed base.

Amazon AWS: Amazon AWS has been the undisputed cloud market leader for the past decade. And it remains the number one vendor in 2022. Simply put, Amazon is everywhere and it has amazing brand recognition. Amazon AWS offers a wide array of services that appeal to companies of all sizes. The AWS cloud-based platform enables companies to build customized business solutions using integrated Web services. AWS also offers a broad portfolio of Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS).  These include Elastic Cloud Compute (EC2), Elastic Beanstalk, Simple Storage Service (S3) and Relational Database Service (RDS). AWS also enables organizations to customize their infrastructure requirements and it provides them with a wide variety of administrative controls via its secure Web-based client. Other key features include: data backup and long-term storage; Service Level Agreement (SLA) of “four nines” – 99.99% – guaranteed SLA uptime;  AI and ML capabilities; automatic capacity scaling; support for virtual private clouds and free migration tools.

As with all of the cloud vendors, the devil is in the details when it comes to pricing and cost. On the surface, the pricing model appears straightforward. AWS offers three different pricing options. They are “Pay as you Go,” “Save when you reserve” and “Pay less using more.”  AWS also offers a free 12-month plan. Once the trial period has expired, the customer must either choose a paid plan or cancel its AWS subscription. While Amazon does provide a price calculator to estimate potential cloud costs, the many variables make it confusing to discern.

Microsoft Azure: Microsoft Azure ranks close behind Amazon AWS and the platform has been the catalyst for the Redmond, Washington software giant’s resurgence over the last 12 years. As Microsoft transitioned away from its core Windows-based business model, it used a tried and true success strategy: that is, the integration and interoperability of its various software offerings.  Microsoft also moved its popular and well-entrenched legacy on-premises software application suites like Microsoft Office, SharePoint, SQL Server and others to the cloud. This gave customers a sense of confidence and familiarity when it came to adoption. Microsoft also boasts one of the tech industry’s largest partner ecosystem. Microsoft regularly refreshes and updates its cloud portfolio. In February, Microsoft unveiled three industry-specific cloud offerings: Microsoft Cloud for Financial Services, Microsoft Cloud for Manufacturing and Microsoft Cloud for Nonprofit. All of these services leverage the company’s security and AI functions. For example,  new feature in Microsoft Cloud for Financial Services, called Loan Manager will enable lenders to close loans faster by streamlining workflows and increasing transparency through automation and collaboration.  Microsoft Azure offers all the basic and advanced cloud features and functions including: data backup and storage; business continuity and DR solutions; capacity planning; business analytics; AI and ML; single sign-on (SSO) and multifactor authentication as well as serverless computing. Ease of configuration and management are among its biggest advantages, and Microsoft does an excellent job of regularly updating the platform, but documentation and patches may lag a bit. Azure also offers a 99.95% SLA uptime guarantee which is a bit less than “four nines.”  Again, the biggest business challenge for existing and prospective Azure customers is figuring out the licensing and pricing model to get the best deal.

Google Cloud Platform (GCP): Like Amazon, Google is a ubiquitous entity with strong brand name recognition. Google touts its ability to enable customers to scale their business as needed using flexible, open technology. Google Cloud consists of over 150 products and developer tools. GCP is a suite of cloud computing services provided by Google. It is a public cloud computing platform consisting of a variety of IaaS and PaaS services like compute, storage, networking, application development and Big Data analytics. The GCP services all run on the same cloud infrastructure that Google uses internally for its end-user products, such as Google Search, Photos, Gmail and YouTube, etc. The GCP services can be accessed by software developers, cloud administrators and IT professionals over the internet or through a dedicated network connection. Notably, Google developed Kubernetes, an open source container standard that automates software deployment, scaling and management. GCP offers a wide array of cloud services including: storage and backup, application development, API management, virtual private clouds, monitoring and management services, migration tools, AI and ML. In order to woo customers, Google does offer very steep discounts and flexible contracts.

IBM: It’s no secret that IBM Cloud lagged behind market leaders AWS and Microsoft Azure, but Big Blue shifted into overdrive to close the gap. Most notably, IBM’s 2019 acquisition of Red Hat for $34 billion gave IBM much needed momentum, solidifying its hybrid cloud foundation and expanding its global cloud reach to 175 countries with over 3,500 hybrid cloud customers. And it shows. On April 19, IBM told Wall Street it expects to hit the top end of its revenue growth forecast for 2022. IBM’s Cloud & Data Platforms unit is the growth driver Cloud revenue grew 14% to $5 billion during the just ended March 31 quarter. Software and consulting sales which represent over 70% of IBM’s business were up 12% and 13%, respectively. IBM Cloud incorporates a host of cloud computing services that run on IaaS or PaaS.  And the Red Hat Open Shift platform further fortifies IBM’s hybrid cloud initiatives. Open Shift is an enterprise-ready Kubernetes container platform built for an open hybrid cloud strategy. It provides a consistent application platform to manage hybrid cloud, multicloud, and edge deployments. According to IBM, 47 of the Fortune 50 companies use IBM as their private cloud provider.  IBM has upped its cloud game with several key technologies. They include advanced quantum safe cryptography which safeguards applications running on the IBM z16 mainframe which is popular with high end IBM enterprise customers. Quantum-safe cryptography is as close to unbreakable or impenetrable encryption as a system can get. It uses quantum mechanics to secure and transmit data in a way that currently makes it near-impossible to hack. Another advanced feature is the AI on-chip inferencing, available on the newly announced IBM z16 mainframe. It can deliver up to 300 billion deep learning inference operations per day with 1ms response time. This will enable even non-data scientist customers to cut through the data deluge and predict and automate for “increased decision velocity.”  AI on-chip inferencing can help customers prevent fraud before it happens by scoring up to 100% of transactions in real-time without impacting Service Level Agreements (SLAs). AI on-chip inferencing can also assist companies with compliance; automating the process to allow firms to cut audit preparation time from one month to one week to maintain compliance and avoid fines and penalties. The IBM Cloud also incorporates the Keep Your Own Key (KYOK) which uses z Hyperprotect in the IBM public cloud.  Another key security differentiator is IBM’s Confidential Computing which protects sensitive data by performing computation in a hardware-based trusted execution environment (TEE). IBM Cloud goes beyond confidential computing by protecting data across the entire compute lifecycle. This provides customers with a higher level of privacy assurance – giving them complete authority over data at rest, data in transit and data in use. IBM further distinguishes its IBM Cloud from competitors via its extensive work in supporting and securing regulated workloads, particularly for Financial Services companies. The company’s Power Systems enterprise servers are supported in the IBM Cloud as well. IBM Cloud also offers full server customization; everything included in the server is handpicked by the customer so they don’t have to pay for features they may never use. IBM is targeting its Cloud offering at customers that want a hybrid, highly secure, open, multi-cloud and manageable environment.

Conclusions

Cloud computing adoption – most especially the hybrid cloud model – will continue to accelerate throughout 2022 and beyond. At the same time, vendors will continue to promote AI, machine learning and analytics as advanced mechanisms to help enterprises derive immediate, greater value and actionable insights to drive revenue and profitability.

Security and compliance issues will also be must-have crucial elements of every cloud deployment. Organizations now demand a minimum of four nines of uptime – and preferably, five and six nines of availability – 99.999% and 99.9999% to ensure uninterrupted business continuity. Vendors, particularly IBM with its newly Quantum-safe cryptography capabilities for its infrastructure and IBM Z mainframe, will continue to fortify cloud security and deploy AI.

 

 

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IBM Bets Big on Cloud, Buys Red Hat for $34B

IBM will acquire open source software and cloud services company Red Hat in a $34B all-cash deal – approximately $190 per share – executives for both firms announced during a joint Monday morning Webcast.

Once the acquisition is complete sometime in the latter half of 2019,Red Hat will become a standalone business unit within IBM’s Hybrid Cloud Team, both companies said in a joint press release. This will preserve the “independence and neutrality” of Red Hat’s open source development heritage and commitment, current product portfolio and go-to-market strategy, and unique development culture. Red Hat will continue to be led by current CEO and president Jim Whitehurst and its current management team. Whitehurst will join IBM’s senior management team and report to IBM chairman, president and chief executive Virginia “Ginni”Rometty. IBM executives said during the Webcast that it intends to maintain Red Hat’s current Research Triangle Park, N.C. headquarters, facilities, brands and practices.

Rometty heralded the Red Hat acquisition as a “game changer” and said it’s all about “resetting the cloud landscape.” IBM’s $34B purchase of Red Hat will be the biggest acquisition in the company’s 107-year history and the price tag equals one-third of IBM’s $105.38B total market valuation.

Rometty clearly feels Red Hat is worth the investment. On Monday’s Webcast she stated that the deal will make “IBM and Red Hat the undisputed Number One leader in hybrid cloud. Our IBM cloud platform is growing like crazy,” Rometty said, adding that “Hybrid cloud is an emerging $1 trillion market.”

The acquisition has been approved by the boards of directors of both IBM and Red Hat. It is subject to Red Hat shareholder approval. It also is subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. Meanwhile, IBM intends to suspend its share repurchase program in 2020 and 2021.At signing, IBM has ample cash, credit and bridge lines to secure the transaction financing. The company intends to close the transaction through a combination of cash and debt.

During the Webcast, Rometty made the case for growth in the hybrid cloud market segment claiming that “most companies today are only 20 percent along” their cloud journey, renting compute power to cut costs. The next 80 percent is about unlocking real business value and driving growth. “This is the next chapter of the cloud. It requires shifting business applications to hybrid cloud, extracting more data and optimizing every part of the business, from supply chains to sales,” Rometty said.

Red Hat’s Whitehurst was equally enthusiastic about the forthcoming IBM acquisition. “Joining forces with IBM will provide us with a greater level of scale, resources and capabilities to accelerate the impact of open source as the basis for digital transformation and bring Red Hat to an even wider audience – all while preserving our unique culture and unwavering commitment to open source innovation.”

Throughout the webcast, IBM Senior Vice President of Hybrid Cloud Arvind Krishna and Red Hat Executive Vice President and President of Products and Technologies Paul Cormier emphasized that it would be business as usual with both IBM and Red Hat continuing to honor existing business commitments and partnerships with other firms.

The executives said all of Red Hat’s existing partnerships with other cloud providers including those with major cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Alibaba and more, in addition to the IBM Cloud will remain in place. At the same time, Red Hat will benefit from IBM’s hybrid cloud and enterprise IT scale in helping expand its open source technology portfolio to businesses globally.Red Hat will also continue its open source development projects such as Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL), the OpenShift implementation of Kubernetes-based containers, and the OpenStack cloud computing platform. Similarly, Krishna said, IBM would continue its partnerships with other Linux distributions.

“IBM is committed to being an authentic multi-cloud provider, and we will prioritize the use of Red Hat technology across multiple clouds,” said Arvind Krishna, Senior Vice President, IBM Hybrid Cloud. “In doing so, IBM will support open source technology wherever it runs, allowing it to scale significantly within commercial settings around the world.”

Analysis

The synergies between IBM and Red Hat are obvious.

It’s very apparent the appeal that Red Hat holds for IBM and vice versa.

The two firms are starting from a strong, solid foundation. They’ve been doing business for over two decades. In recent years, Red Hat has expanded its Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL) operating system distribution and services to run on IBM’s POWER servers and z System mainframes. It’s an alliance that has served both firms well.

“Red Hat is not an open source company. We’re an enterprise software company with an open source development model. Our secret sauce is putting those two things together,” Red Hat’s Cormier noted on Monday’s Webcast. “IBM,” he added, “also has a long history of enterprise-grade software and open source development. So, the two companies have a lot in common.”

IBM now wants to capitalize on that commonality in a very big way. It’s no secret that Big Blue’s cloud growth has lagged behind behemoths like Amazon, Google and Microsoft. A 2018 State of the Cloud Report by Rightscale, a cloud management firm, which surveyed 1,000 users, rated IBM as a number four cloud service provider behind Amazon, Microsoft and Google. The Rightscale study also showed that IBM cloud deployment was occurring at a slower pace than the other three market leaders. The Red Hat purchase could serve to accelerate IBM’s cloud deployments and close the gap between IBM, Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

Red Hat helps IBM to grow its cloud business on all fronts: private, public and hybrid clouds since Red Hat built its model on open source and open standards and a very active open source developer community. This stands in stark contrast to the proprietary offerings of Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle and other players.Both IBM and Red Hat can leverage their core strengths in Linux, Kurbernetes, cloud management and service and support. Additionally, Red Hat will have access to IBM’s strong, deep ties to the channel which should enable it to close enterprise deals worldwide and give Red Hat’s product portfolio much greater exposure.

Another plus is IBM’s proven track record with open source. IBM has made numerous royalty-free patent contributions to the Open Invention Network to support development of the Linux platform as well as contributions to Java and the Eclipse development platform, so all of this should stand it in good stead as it moves to embrace and expand its hybrid cloud initiatives.

IBM and Red Hat By the Numbers: Betting Big on the Cloud

The biggest question from investors and analysts following the merger announcement: is whether Red Hat, a company with approximately one-fourth IBM’s valuation is worth the $34B purchase price?

Based on IBM’s perspective of gaining a competitive cloud advantage the answer is a resounding “Yes.”  

Consider that just 18 months ago, Red Hat CEO Whitehurst revealed in a quarterly analyst call that the firm’s biggest deal worth over $20M, came from Linux. But in the last year Red Hat’s top two dozen deals totaling $5M or more were attributable to its OpenShift offering. The OpenShift Container Platform (formerly known as OpenShift Enterprise) is Red Hat’s on-premises private platform as a service product, built around a core of application containers powered by Docker, with orchestration and management provided by Kubernetes, on a foundation of Red Hat Enterprise Linux.  IBM hopes that the combination of its own and Red Hat cloud open source offerings and services sold through its worldwide channel will enable it to expand its presence among enterprises seeking to move their datacenters to the cloud.

Ironically, in the immediate aftermath of the announcement IBM’s stock price declined by 3.54 percent and was trading at $115.40 at Tuesday’s market close, while Red Hat’s stock rose slightly to $170 at Tuesday’s market close. Now, a week later, IBM’s stock price rebounded to $120, but it is still trading well below its 52-week high of $171. Red Hat’s stock meanwhile, continues to climb and gained another three dollars closing at $173.31 after the bell on November 5.

As Exhibits 1 and 2 below illustrate, IBM and Red Hat’s financials each face challenges going forward – specifically in terms of jump starting quarterly revenue and income growth. IBM is also facing pressure to increase its stock price which is now trading at the lower end of its 52-week low of 114.

 

Exhibit 1. IBM by the Numbers

IBM Financials, R&D Spending and Patents 2017 – 2018
Current Stock Price as of 11/5/2018
$120.06 (US)
Market Capitalization $109.11 Billion
Profit Margin 7.12%
Operating Margin 15.14%
Return on Assets 6.24%
Return on Equity 28.82%
Revenue $80.37B
Quarterly Revenue Growth -2.10%
Net Income $5.72B
Quarterly Earnings Growth -1.20%
Total Cash $14.49B
Total Debt $46.92B
Total Global Workforce 380,300
Research & Development Spending $5.6B
 

Number of Patents

9,043 patents awarded in 2017 nearly half

in AI, cloud, blockchain, quantum & security.

Nearly 780,000 total Patents

Source: ITIC

Exhibit 2. Red Hat by the Numbers

Red Hat Financials, R&D Spending and Patents 2017 – 2018
Current Stock Price as of 11/5/2018
$173.31 (US)
Market Capitalization $30.6 Billion
Profit Margin 9.08%
Operating Margin 15.73%
Return on Assets 6.57%
Return on Equity 21.30%
Revenue $3.16B
Quarterly Revenue Growth 13.70%
Net Income $286.44M
Quarterly Earnings Growth -10.50%
Total Cash $1.77B
Total Debt $516.53M
Total Global Workforce 12,600
Research & Development Spending $578.33M
Number of Patents >2,000 since 2002 but does not enforce if used in properly licensed open sourced software

Source: ITIC 

Skepticism: Will Other Suitors Emerge?

As with any merger or acquisition, there’s always the potential that a deal will get called off or that other suitors will emerge.

Several Wall Street analysts suggested that high technology rivals might decide to play the role of spoiler and top IBM’s bid of $190 per share for Red Hat. Some of the names being mentioned as possible suitors were: Cisco Systems, Inc., Google and Oracle Corp.

On Monday, Cowen analyst Gregg Moskowitz, was one of those Wall Street analysts who opined that other bidders may crop up. “The substantial premium that IBM is paying for Red Hat might on the surface seem to make it highly unlikely that a superior bid could occur,” Moskowitz said. “However, we believe there is a reasonable possibility that another suitor could emerge.” Moskowitz said if a breakup fee was not overly onerous, Cisco might be a likely contender to lure Red Hat away.

Brad Reback, a Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc. said in a research note that he would “not be surprised if hyperscale cloud vendorslike Google, Amazon, Microsoft, or Oracle make a competing bid given Red Hat’s strategic position within on-premises datacenters (over 100K customers).”

Microsoft, however, might be a longshot since it recently announced its own open source initiative with its $7.5B acquisition of GitHub.

Michael Turits, Managing Director Equity Research Infrastructure at Raymond James & Associates, says a bidding war may occur in the near future and says IBM’s bid for Red Hat could set off a buying frenzy for software firms.

Turits said a stronger IBM cloud portfolio poses a threat to several of its rivals, including Microsoft and Oracle.

Conclusion

IBM has made a bold move to strengthen its position in hybrid clouds and close the gap between itself and Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Purchasing Red Hat also brings IBM more closely back to its core strengths in software, open source and services. The Red Hat Linux distribution should also serve to further solidify IBM’s already strong POWER and z Systems server hardware offerings.

What is not clear is how the merged entity will treat or de-emphasize its relationships/partnerships with other cloud vendors once the Red Hat acquisition is complete. Regardless of what IBM and Red Hat say now, changes are bound to occur in those relationships.

The more immediate issue is whether or not any other firms will decide to up the ante and start a bidding war for Red Hat. That could make things very interesting. For right now though, IBM has served notice that it will put its money and its marketing muscle behind its cloud ambitions.

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